OUR BLACK FRIDAY 2025 predictions: NOw A BATTLE OF ENDURANCE, NOT DISCOUNTS
Once an American import. Now, an Australian institution. Black Friday isn’t a weekend anymore – it’s the season that now defines Australian retail.
We’ve been watching the signs closely. Here’s what we predict for the Black Friday weekend month in Australia 2025.
And why this year won’t play out like the last.
2024 rewrote Black Friday rules (skip this bit if you’re not into the numbers).
2024 didn’t just reset records - it reshaped the retail calendar.
Australian retail sales in November jumped 0.8% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with Australian’s spending more than $37 billion - making it one of the strongest Novembers on record.
But the biggest shift? When that spend landed. October rose 0.5%, showing that some of the holiday demand was pulled forward. December, in contrast, softened - proof that some of Christmas’s upside got absorbed earlier.
But what about over in the U.S? Black Friday online sales hit a record US $10.8 billion, up ~10%. And in-store gains were muted - highlighting how digital is still the growth engine.
So yes - 2024 was a record season. But more tellingly, it showed a new beat: earlier, louder and increasingly digital.
More numbers… our (best guess) 2025 Black Friday / Cyber Monday outlook.
Based on growth rates, consumer sentiment and retail dynamics; and assuming continued momentum in discretionary categories and modest real-income recovery:
2024 base: ~AUD $37 billion (November retail turnover, non-seasonally adjusted - ABS).
2025 forecast: ~AUD $38 - $39 billion (+4 - 8%).
If this holds, the Black Friday weekend alone could account for AUD $6 - 7 billion+ of that total. A quick note: This estimate uses Australia’s full November turnover as a proxy for Black Friday impact. The number flexes depending on inflation, sub-category inclusion and how much spend gets pulled forward from December.
Bottom line: expect growth - but not all of of it will be new money. Some will simply arrive earlier.
Although originating from America, it’s now estimated that at least 129 countries are reported to participate in some form of the Black Friday shopping event. Source: Threecolts
What we expect from consumers in 2025 (and what you need to act on).
It’s no longer a day, a weekend, or even month - It’s a season. Six weeks of deals, noise and competition.
We expect Black Friday to span roughly six weeks. October ‘pre-access’ promos have become table stakes, as brands and retailers fight harder for share of wallet in a tough cost-of-living environment. The noise builds through November - wait until then to act, and you’re already behind.
Christmas is coming early.
The classic December crescendo is fading. Gift, decor, premium and non-essential categories - much of this will continue to migrate into November - the new peak.
Consumers are doing their homework.
Gone are the days of blind discount baiting. Shoppers are now coming into the sale prepared and benchmarking prices weeks ahead, cross-checking across channels and competitors before the click buy. They know exactly what a ‘deal’ is worth.
Discount patience is real.
We saw last year, that many still believe the ‘real deals’ drop on the actual Black Friday weekend. Don’t pull your biggest discount lever too early, or you risk eroding urgency and margin in future years.
Power categories will lead.
Tech, home, fashion and beauty will drive volume - even if margins get squeezed.
AI enters… cautiously.
Smart retailers will begin to incorporate AI for search, personalisation and merchandising. But AI trust is fragile. Messy or misleading AI will get called out fast.
Implications for brands and retailers.
Activate your ‘war room’ by October - Marketing, logistics, pricing, staffing and supply - all need alignment before the noise begins.
Protect your December story - Don’t let it fade after the discount storm. Launch fresh or premium lines that can hold their own post-sale, so December doesn’t look weak.
Guard your margins - early discounting eats into buffer. Be surgical in promotions - set clear thresholds, know your walk-away points and don’t chase every price war.
Don’t just discount. Data-capture. Integrate loyalty into the sale and turn a one-off buyer into a lifelong customer.
Truth or trouble - misleading ‘was vs. now’ pricing or ‘fake urgency’ won’t go unnoticed. Media, influencers, even regulators are watching.
Use AI, but with empathy and empathy - show why something was recommended. Messy or manipulative AI will get exposed fast.
The Final Word.
Black Friday 2025 won’t be about surprises - it’ll be about endurance. The season is longer, the customer smarter and the competition hungrier.
Play it like a weekend stunt and you’re already out of the game.
